ABBV/PCYC: Imbruvica and ABT-199 are Synergistic
ABBV’s acquisition of PCYC raised eyebrows, both because of the valuation placed on PCYC, and because ABBV has a promising lead compound (ABT-199) being developed for the same B-cell malignancies...
View ArticleABC/CAH/MCK: US Generic Inflation Continues in 1Q15
On a sales-weighted basis, prices (paid by retailers) for US generics rose 4.7% in 1Q15, substantially faster than in 4Q14 (0.5%), and on par with the average pace of inflation (5.1%) seen since early...
View ArticleSSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update
Drug, biotech, and research-based spec pharma stocks tend to outperform their peers in the year or so before and after regulatory actions (‘PDUFA’ dates) on major new products, with a large portion of...
View ArticleA WBA/RAD or CVS/RAD NEWCO as a Counterweight to Narrowing Retail Pharmacy...
This note updates our argument that US retail pharmacy networks are likely to narrow, compressing pharmacy dispensing margins – and in particular focuses on our belief that a WBA/RAD or CVS/RAD NEWCO...
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DuPont – A Slim Victory but Have Any Lessons Been Learned?
DuPont may have won the battle, albeit by a small margin, but in our view it is still very much in danger of losing the war. Beating Trian in the recent proxy fight may be a cause for celebration in...
View ArticleUS Drug Pricing Stalls. Uh-Oh …
Growth in US brand pharmaceuticals’ list prices has accelerated – but discounts are growing even faster. As a result, on average US brands’ net price growth is very nearly zero Net price growth is...
View ArticleACA at the Supreme Court: Subsidies Are Here to Stay, Even if SCOTUS Finds...
Congress cannot repeal the ACA; the President would almost certainly veto a repeal bill, and Republicans lack the two-thirds votes required in both chambers to overturn. (Republicans have 56 percent...
View ArticleA Strategic Look at CVS/TGT; Why We’re Still Bullish on RAD
CVS’ acquisition of TGT’s pharmacies raises from 17.6% to 22.7% the percent of the US population living in areas where CVS cannot be excluded from a retail pharmacy network (at least one that complies...
View ArticleSNY/REGN: When to Expect Outcomes Data for Praluent
Last week’s Advisory Committee vote implies the Praluent and Repatha labels might be somewhat restricted until their outcomes trials are completed. Presumably positive outcomes data would lead to...
View ArticleCVS/TGT: What Does the Store-In-Store Strategy Mean for RAD?
If we assume CVS cannot repeat the TGT store-in-store deal with other major mass merchants, but can do such a deal with a single supermarket (who would likely impose limits on further deals with other...
View ArticleMobile Payments: The TMT Perspective
M-payments offer very little benefit to consumers or merchants today. Uptake, even for the widely hyped ApplePay, is disappointing. Meanwhile, retailers, their customers saturated with loyalty cards...
View ArticleTMUS: Wireless Ain’t What it Used to Be
We believe that TMUS is worth $55-60 based on projected future market share gains and margin improvements. It is winning a zero-sum game in the increasingly stagnant US wireless market, as consumer...
View ArticleTMT: 2Q 2015 Earnings Preview
1Q15 shook things up with unexpectedly weak digital ad spending and an unexpectedly strong shift to the enterprise cloud. This quarter, we expect digital ads to get back on track in the US against...
View ArticleEBAY & PYPL: The Divorce is Final
After a strong 2Q15, PYPL heads to its Monday spin with significant business momentum. Given the near term trajectory of e-commerce, and competitive moat of its small business focus, 2015 estimates...
View ArticleVideo Media – The Cord Cutting Myth Gets Real
The death of the multichannel cable bundle will take years to play out, but investors were reminded of its inevitability by the signs of erosion from even the best regarded media players. TV viewing is...
View ArticleTMT: Paradigm Change Trumps Economic Risk
The late August correction hit TMT leaders hard, partially overshadowing 2Q15 numbers that evidenced the technology driven paradigm shifts that are transforming sectors across the economy and...
View ArticleSmartphones: Mobile Maturity
The global mobile phone installed base has decelerated sharply this decade to roughly 3% annual growth, a pace that may be sustainable for a few more years. In this context, demand for new phones is...
View ArticleTMT: 3Q 2015 Earnings Preview
2Q15 gave powerful evidence to the tectonic plate shifts remaking the TMT landscape. Those change vectors will drive 3Q15 earnings as well, creating significant investment opportunities and risks....
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APD Materials Spin – The Right Strategic Move, But Not Much Value Add
APD’s long expected announcement to spin off its Materials and Electronics came after the close last night. The company expects to complete the spin by the end of its 2016 fiscal year (September),...
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DuPont: Is Some Sort of Breakup Now More Likely? We Would Own DD and DOW
With the exit of Chair and CEO, Ellen Kuhlman, and the interim replacement of Ed Breen, there will be lots of questions about; why so sudden, why Ed, why not Jim Gallogly and what comes next. One could...
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